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1.6.23 – SSI

Looking to move beyond years of COVID and supply challenges, experts give their takes on the good (emerging technologies, new revenue streams) and the bad (construction slowdown, looming recession).

As part of SSI‘s 2023 Security Industry Forecast, we spoke with more than two dozen experts to gain their insights into what 2022 holds for the security industry. Here, 16 of them also share what they believe is better and worse about the industry.

Here’s what they had to say…

Clint Choate | Snap One

GOOD: Settled into a ‘new norm’ with work environments and the related processes and procedures. With the exception of field work, it has opened up new flexibility in attracting talent with remote workers.

BAD: Slowdown in new home construction could have a significant impact, and it could be prolonged. Also, cost of credit is impacting consumer financing and business financing in general.

Kirk MacDowell | MacGuard Security Advisors

GOOD: The pandemic necessitated the industry revamp, retool and re-emerge and they did so with gusto. Also, the foundation has been set for the new AVS-01 alarm validation standard.

BAD: Some large residential dealers got ahead of their skis with investors and banks pulling back on financing, which impacted multiples paid in general.

Jeff Ross | ACRE

GOOD: New technologies, such as Cloud and analytics, are in demand and integrators are changing to stay on top of the latest trends. And security pros now understand the value of IT and cyber as part of a holistic security effort.

BAD: Supply chain issues have been a major problem, and while we’ve made progress, it certainly has not been easy.

Eddie Reynolds | iluminar

GOOD: The collective push to diversify its workforce to include women and minorities.

BAD: Stakeholders not focused on improving sensitive issues — such as diversity, equity and inclusion — will become irrelevant.

Mitch Reitman | Reitman Consulting Group

GOOD: With employers requiring employees to go back to the office there are opportunities to integrators for expansions and repairs. Residential may rebound as employees won’t be home as much.

BAD: A recession could hit residential RMR very hard, as home monitoring is typically a discretionary expense. Also, fiscal government constraints will cut grant money for active shooter, mass notification and CCTV installs.

Brian James | ScanSource

GOOD: Information and end user can access via physical security as a data capture device continues to increase.

BAD: Demand is far out-weighing supply, and there are not enough younger people entering the industry.

Brent Boekestein | Vintra

GOOD: The increased level of intelligence now available for security, safety, workforce management and business intelligence applications.

BAD: Sometimes software and hardware providers do not accurately describe capabilities, leading to unrealistic expectations as was the case years ago when video analytics promised more than they could deliver.

Warren Hill | Alula

GOOD: Consumers are becoming better educated on features and benefits of smart security, with new features and capabilities being added each year.

BAD: While a DIY, self-monitored system can provide value to the average user, it is typically not on par with a professionally designed, installed and monitored smart security system.

Alison Forsythe | EverCommerce Security & Alarm

GOOD: Disruption, new entrants into the market and new technologies have resulted in a significant increase in innovation in this industry.

BAD: Allowing autonomous or programmed technology to operate without needed oversight.

Charles Durant | Sandra Jones and Co.

GOOD: Emerging technologies like AI in the form of machine learning will allow the providing of better and more cost-effective solutions to end users. Also, a greater awareness of cybersecurity threats, and willingness by end users to embrace managed security services.

BAD: Entry of unicorn start-ups with a disruptive and, at times careless, approach to the market. We’ve seen such players with overzealous and high-pressure sales tactics and ignorance regarding the applicable regulatory environment.

Brach Bengtzen | ProdataKey

GOOD: Subscription Cloud-based security solutions benefit everyone and associated mobile apps have led to more integration possibilities. Also, security needs in the post-pandemic workplace have become more clear.

BAD: A recession and inflation may impact the low end of the market. And, there may be market saturation for some technology categories.

Celia Besore | TMA

GOOD: The COVID-19 pandemic is not as concerning; we have found ways to manage it.

BAD: The impact of the global economy will be felt in all aspects.

Jennifer Kent | Parks Associates

GOOD: The home security industry is adapting to the shifting landscape and economy by finding ways to earn new revenue by offering more services to customers, and/or simply raising rates.

BAD: Consumers are experiencing exceptional rises in the cost of living, with inflation breaking a 40-year high in June 2022; interest rates are at their highest since pre-pandemic 2019.

Related: Analyzing Security M&A Activity in 2022

Valerie Currin | Boon Edam

GOOD: Due to the pandemic, organizations are likely better prepared to deal with unforeseen events. Manufacturers were awoken to the need to solidify supply chain gaps and importance to build products that can withstand market uncertainties.

BAD: The global economy and local crime both continue to deteriorate, which can lead to widespread economic distress beyond what we are currently facing.

Peter Giacalone | Giacalone Associates

GOOD: Technology is on a great path, monitoring is more efficient, effective and understood, and the public is more informed than ever.

BAD: The larger and newer players have figured how to attract many segments; technology is becoming easier for end users to install and maintain; if you don’t adopt new technologies and paths to market, it could be a big problem.

Matt Welty | Codelocks

GOOD: New technologies provide new options for systems. There is an increasing awareness of the need for security given the increasing crime rates in many areas.

BAD: Inflation and the cost of money is putting a pinch on end users affording to purchase/finance high-end systems. Supply chain issues will continue to negatively impact timely delivery of systems.